The Monty Hall problem has a very specific clause: Monty knows where the car is. He never chooses the door with the car. And by curating the remaining doors for you, he raises the odds that switching is always a good bet. Another of the reasons some people can’t wrap their head around the Monty Hall problem is the small numbers.
When playing blackjack, and the dealer is showing an ace, does buying insurance follow the normal method of calculating the true count based on all cards known? Or, does it follow the rules of the Monty Hall paradox, i.e., ignore the cards that just came out and calculate the true count based on the running count PRIOR to all player(s) hands being dealt?
Mathematics shouldn't be an issue here, as I'm only asking as to whether the Monty Hall problem is applicable in this situation.
When making a perfect decision in the mathematical sense, you must use all the information available at the point of decision, i.e. the dealt cards must be taken into account. So your first assumption is correct.
Monty Hall doesn't apply to this, and I don't follow your logic here how it might apply. (Side note: Better refer to it as the 'Monty Hall Problem', since it isn't a paradox at all, just logic.)
Without the cards on the table, the count is X. With them, the count is Y. Maybe X dictates that insurance should be taken, while Y does not.
But I'm not sure why it would ever be a good idea to ignore available information (the cards on the table) when making this decision.
Monty Hall 21 Blackjack
The Monte Hall problem involves someone (Monte) who has additional information that is unknown to you and who offers you an opportunity to revise a decision.
The very essence of Monte Hall problem is not the allowed revision of a decision. The essence of the problem is, that Monte's action are not independent of your own choices, and thus two seemingly identical decisions are in fact quite different.
Problema De Monty Hall 21 Blackjack
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